The Blank Swan: The End of Probability by Elie Ayache

The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache ebook
Format: pdf
ISBN: 9780470725221
Page: 496
Publisher: Wiley

Sep 1, 2013 - However, after a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Western Australia toward the end of that century, the possibility of having black swans was accepted but subject to very low probability. Jul 23, 2013 - Three Black Swans Libya's “black swans” are low-probability events that nonetheless occurred, subsequently defining its post-Arab Spring trajectory. To give you some sense of the This increases the probability of a big opening weekend and subsequent buzz for the film. To this end, the justice sector was, wisely, partially exempted from the political isolation law, thanks to back-channel negotiations just prior to the law's passage. The first black swan was that Libya even had a successful revolution. Jun 28, 2011 - Technically speaking, I would not consider too many of these below true black swans only because probabilities are reasonably attachable to most. The likely time-scales cannot be short compared to the past record, And that means that the likelihood of the world ending before tomorrow dawns is less than one-in-a-trillion. Jan 6, 2014 - This sequence could come to an end in a “black swan” event; the laws of physics could suddenly change, or the Earth could collide with a wandering planet big enough to destroy it. What are the likely time-scales for such events? May 29, 2007 - Black swan events can be positive as well, such as the end of the cold war. Chairman regards monetary hyper-inflation as being zero cost; Ron Paul pushes for a USFed audit, an end run to pay down USGovt debt; USFed owns more USTBonds than any other creditor; Competing Currency War has Euro weakness mean USDollar as all circle the toilet. After the first wave of uprisings began in . Oct 12, 2010 - Of possible interest to blog readers: Quant Elie Ayache uses philosopher Quentin Meillassoux (his book After Finitude) in a talk about his recent book, The Blank Swan: The End of Probability. And that is a sufficiently small probability for us to ignore. Jan 21, 2010 - How do you end up with high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations?